The Dangers Putin Imposes on the World in 2023

NEW YORK — “World Food Program chief David Beasley raised the alarm Wednesday on Capitol Hill about the possibility of global food shortages next year if Russia does not lift its blockade of Ukrainian grain exports and send its own fertilizer to world markets. ‘And that is going to be a crisis beyond anything we’ve seen in our lifetime, he warned.”

As of the writing of this article Russia has withdrawn its agreement allowing Ukraine to ship gran from Ukrainian ports: “On Friday, United Nations Secretary General Antonio Guterres had called on all sides to renew the grain deal, saying: ‘If food and fertilizers do not reach global markets now, farmers will not have fertilizers at the right time and at a price they can afford as the planting season begins, endangering crops in all regions of the world in 2023 and 2024, with dramatic effect on food production and food prices worldwide. The current crisis of affordability will turn into a crisis of availability.”’

It is a bad situation that the United States has to be involved in a proxy war in a country accused of corruption and is essentially of no value to the U.S.  Already 54 billion dollars of tax payer’s money in various aid has been sent and who knows how much more will be required before the war is over. While compassion is due for Ukraine who is aggressively attacked by Russia for no reasonable reason, there is a much larger issue at stake, that is the danger Putin imposes on the world in 2023 and beyond if allowed to take over Ukraine.

In the past it would have been ludicrous to imagine that one man could threaten the welfare and safety of the entire world. However, that is what we are witnessing today. There is little doubt as to Putin’s objectives: He has considered the collapse of the USSR as “the greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the 20th century,” which included the loss of Central Asia, the three Baltic republics and the South Caucasus. Neither has Putin ever been able to accept Ukraine’s independence and its alignments with the West. Putin has made a great deal of headway in pursuing his goal toward restoring the 1917 Russian Empire:

• Transnistria since 1992
• Abkhazia since 2008
• South Ossetia since 2008
• Luhansk Oblast (Partially occupied) since 2008
• Crimea since 2014
• Donetsk Oblast (Partially occupied) since 2014
• Zaporizhzhia (Partially occupied) since 2022
• Kherson (partially occupied) since 2022
• And presently Russia is in dispute over the Kuril Islands.

“One consequence of the war is that Belarus is now firmly under Russia’s control. For many years, it had struck a more conciliatory posture, but still rejected integration with Russia. That is now over. Many of the Russian troops in Belarus will remain indefinitely, and the country will increasingly be ruled, de facto, from Moscow. Equally worrying is that Putin’s February 21 speech referred quite explicitly to restoring not the Soviet Union, which he criticized in various ways, but the Russian empire as it existed prior to 1917. That not only calls into question all of the former Soviet states, but also a large part of Poland, including Warsaw, which was part of the Russian empire. How far he intends to go is unknown, and may depend on how things go in Ukraine. But after this week’s events, [recent events] Russia’s neighbors cannot simply assume that they won’t be targeted.” [1]

To better understand Putin’s position on the war, one needs to understand the geography and potential volitivity of Russia. According to the surface area in square miles, Russia is the largest country in the world. According to the CIA World Factbook, Russia has a surface area of 196,939,900 square miles, 70.8% water and 29.2% land.

However, according to population, it ranks much lower in size. The population of the Russian Federation is around 144 million. The U.S. population is 323 million. China has a population of 1.379 billion. India has a population of 1.324 billion.

Russia is one of the most sparsely populated countries in the world, primarily due to its harsh climate. Russia has a population density of only 22 people per square mile. 99% of Russians live in the dense European area around Saint Petersburg and Moscow (the central green area on the map below). In contrast, the People’s Republic of China covers an area of approximately 3.7 million square miles, making it the world’s 4th largest country by area. With a population of about 1.4 billion people, the country has a population density of 375.5 people per square mile (145/sq. km), making it the 83rd most densely populated country.

The lighter area to the south of Moscow, on the map is a desert no man’s land, and to the north of Moscow, the dark area on the map, is the frozen tundra where the temperature is too frigid to comfortably support life. The vast land to the south is militarily unprotected from attack by any enemies of Russia, which makes Russia volatile militarily. Russia is fenced in on the undefendable northern and southern fronts.

Apparently, in Putin’s mind, Russia needs all the countries that made up the previous 1917 Soviet Empire to secure Russia’s existence. The needed access points for Russia all fell at the end of the Soviet Union except one. Altogether that amounted to 21 countries who became independent. Today Putin wants to get back those zones that were lost to restore Russia’s military footprint. Ukraine is important to that objective. If won. it will be a staging area for further attacks on former Russian alliances. Astoria, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland among others, which are all in Putin’s crosshairs. To Putin the war is a battle for the existence of Russia, which is far overdrawn. From what we are seeing presently, Russia’s aggression my contribute to the fall of Russia.

In order for Russia to succeed, Ukraine must be taken over completely. Then which country is next? According to Avril Haines, director of the United States Intelligence Agency), “the war waged by Russia will be long and will affect other countries. Next on the list to be invaded, according to Avril Haines and many other analysts, is Moldova.” The western alliances cannot allow Putin to take over Ukraine, otherwise, it would fuel Russian aggression. Also, if Russia controls Belarus and Ukraine, it has 96% control of the market of potash necessary for healthy crops across the world. Belarus and Russia have 40% of the world’s supply of potash. If the world does not obtain the needed fertilizer for crops in 2023, it could spark a worldwide famine causing millions of deaths. This is the concern of the World Food Program chief David Beasley in the quote at the top of the page. Of course, it is our hope that the war will end soon and so will Putin’s plan of aggression.

The preceding article is the view of the author and is not intended to be a preview of what will happen, only what could happen especially if Putin is allowed to take over Ukraine.

[1] From an interview with UC Riverside Professor Paul D’Anieri who has provided context on the Russian invasion of Ukraine. D’Anieri is a professor of political science and public policy, and a expert on Eastern European and post-Soviet politics. He is the author of a 2019 book entitled “Ukraine and Russia.”

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Tags: Putin, dangers, Ukraine, world food supply, world famine

Title: The Dangers Putin Imposes on the World in 2023

Author: Jimmie Burroughs

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